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WwA
Worldwide Attitudes
ISSN 1323-9589
Volume 1996-08-26
Date: 26 August 1996
TRENDS IN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN AUSTRALIA
Jonathan Kelley and M.D.R. Evans
(c) Copyright 1996 by Jonathan Kelley and M.D.R.
Evans. All rights reserved.
In Australia over the course of most of the twentieth century, governments increasingly centralized educational funding, and spread the cost over students' life times (and over other economically successful people) with steeply progressive taxes on high income earners. In recent years, the policy has been more directly targeted on students, with a deferred payment scheme known as HECS. The present government's recently announced budget moves even further in the direction of "user pays", but without proportionate reductions in taxes on high income earners. An important question in this context is whether the government's use of students as "cash cows" (pay now and pay later), will ultimately backfire, by driving students away from university. That would have important "side-effects" on Australia's economy as a whole, since increasing the educational level of the workforce is the key to economic growth.
At present, we do not know how combining a user-pays system with subsequent high taxation will affect education. We do know that a heavily "user-pays" system combined with relatively low subsequent taxation does not seem to deter students from university (e.g. the USA). We also know that systems with no "user-pays" costs combined with very high levels of subsequent taxation (or, equivalently, very equalitarian, centrally administered pay systems) do not completely deter students from university (although they may slow educational growth, e.g. Central and Eastern Europe during Communist times). But the effect of combining a user-pays system with relatively high taxation on high income earners is much rarer. What can history tell us?
Data
To begin to answer this question, we investigate the patterns of educational attainment among respondents to six surveys conducted by the International Social Science Survey/ Australia, between 1984 and 1995/96. All are large, representative national samples of all states and territories. Combining respondents to all these surveys, and also utilizing information provided by them about their brothers and sisters, we have data 28,770 Australians aged 18 or more when they were surveyed.
These data describe Australians' educational experiences through most of the 20th century. The earliest data, from respondents who were already old when we intervewed them in 1984, are for cohorts born in the 1910s and 1920s. They would have been in school and university in the 1930s and 1940s. The latest data are from young respondents in our 1995/96 survey who were born in the 1970s and attended school in the 1980s and early 1990s.
The Question
We derive our estimates of years of education completed from a series of questions about various educational transitions. The series builds on questions developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). We code educational qualifications into the ABS's detailed code and convert these into estimates of years of education typically required to complete the qualification (actual rather than formal requirements, when those differ) based on expert advice from Don Anderson. The questions:
2a. What is the highest grade or year of school you have completed?
No formal schooling ...............00
Primary Grade 1 ...............01
Grade 2 ...............02
Grade 3 ...............03
Grade 4 ...............04
Grade 5 ...............05
Grade 6 ...............06
Secondary Year 7 (Form 1) .......07
Year 8 (Form 2) .......08
Year 9 (Form 3) .......09
Year 10 (Form 4).......10
Year 11 (Form 5).......11
Year 12 (Form 6).......12
....
7. What is the highest qualification you have completed since you left school?
a. Qualification Name (For example: trade certificate, diploma in science, B.A.)
Name:
b. Name of Institution (For example: Sydney Technical College, University of W.A.)
Institution:
c. Field of Study (For example: plumbing, computing, geography.)
Field:
d. Is that a trade qualification?......Yes No
e. In what year did you begin that course?
Began:............19______
f. In what year did you obtain the qualification?
Finished:...........................19_______
Still working toward the qualification..97
No qualification .......................98
Educational Trends
Educational levels have risen rapidly over the 20th century, continuing the trends noted in prior research (Broom et al. 1980; Evans and Kelley 1995; Marks, Ganzeboom, and Zagorski 1995):
(1) On average, Australians born before 1930 -- who would mostly have been in school in the 1930s and 1940s -- achieved 9.3 years of education (table 1). Only 22 percent of them persisted to finish year 12 at school. Of those few who finished year 12 in school, just 27 percent on to complete unversity, so in all just 6% of the age cohort completed university.
(2) The average number of years of education completed rose to 10.0 years for those born in the 1930s. 27% completed year 12 and 8% finished university.
(3) Educational levels rose to 10.9 years for those born in the 1940s, with 37% completing year 12 and 14% finishing university.
(4) Those born in the 1950s -- who would have been getting their education in the 1960s and 1970s -- did even better, getting 11.7 years on average. 47% completed year 12 and 20% completed university. Mid-life attendance at university became increasingly common in these years, so a fair few them would have first left school for some years but later returned as adults to continue their education (Evans 1993).
(5) As for those born since 1960, average educational levels rose to 11.9 years. For the first time in Australian history, more than half , 55%, finished secondary school. No less than 21% finished university (and some unknown further number will later return to finish university as "mature-age" students).
The total change in average educational levels over this period is a gain of 2.6 years: on average, people born since 1960 have about two and one half years more education than did people born before 1929. Correspondingly, the percentage completing secondary school has risen 33% (from 22% to 55%) over the same period. The percentage of university graduates has risen 15% over the period (from 6% to 21%).
Why are Australians Better Educated Now than in the Past?
Many things have changed over the course of the course of the 20th century. Perhaps the most conspicuous changes in Australia, as in most Western nations, has been the growth of cities, the sharp decline in family size, and economic growth. All of these are implicated in educational change (table 2).
We estimate the size of their impact on years of schooling by ordinary least squares regression (following the methods of Alwin and Hauser) and the impact on finishing year 12 and finishing university by similar methods based on logistic regression (see appendix).
Urbanization. The 'push' of declining farm and rural employment and the 'pull' of high-paying skilled jobs in the cities have led to an exodus from the land and the rapid growth of cities. In this, Australia is like most modern nations. Schooling has always been more easily available in urban places, so this change alone has increased educational levels. Our regression estimates show that between 5% and 7% of the change over the century is due to urbanization (table 2, line 2).
Changes in Family Size. In Australia, as in most of the the Western world, fertility levels fluctuated in the early decades of the 20th century, peaked in the post-war 'baby boom' and then steadly declined in recent decades to its present level of around two children per couple. And in Australia, as in most nations, children in large families are at an educational disadvantage -- probably because the parents with large families have to divide their time, energy, and money over a large number of children while parents with small families can offer more help to each child. Thus the decline in fertility in recent decades will in the normal course of things increase educational attainment.
Our estimates imply that the decline of family size has accounted for 4% or 5% of the growth in years of schooling and completion of year 12 in school (table 2, columns 1 and 2). Because it increased year 12 completion, and many of those who finish year 12 then decide to go on to university, this also indirectly increased university education, by about 3%. However, once students have completed year 12, coming from a large family is no longer a noticeable disadvantage, so changes in fertility do not account for any noticeable part of the growth in university completion among year 12 graduates (table 1, last column).
Economic Growth. Over the course of the century, economic growth in Australia has been substantial. In recent decades, many more Australian parents are themselves well educated while many fewer stopped their educaiton at the end of compulsory schooling than used to be the case. Partly as a consequence of this, many more Australian parents now have high status, well-paying professional and managerial jobs than was true at the turn of the century, and many fewer work in low status, low-paying unskilled jobs. And, partly as a consequence of both these changes, many more Australian families have lots of books around the house and do more reading, writing, and other cultural activities. Since children born into well educated, high status, culturally inclined families typically do better in school themselves, all these changes will, in the normal course of events, increase educational levels.
Our results imply that 25% to 27% of educational growth stems from economic growth (table 2). A major part of this is educational growth early in the century, which leads to better, more cognitively complex jobs for the recipients and, a generation later, to more schooling for their children.
This modernization of the workforce in the parental generation has a large impact on the completion of secondary school. But it is less important at the next stage, when those who have completed secondary school decide whether or not to go on to university, explaining only 14% of that (table 2, last column).
Other Influences. Most of the increase in educational attainment comes from other factors, around 63% to 67% (table 2). Thus we are still in the dark about the main sources of educational change in this century.
Moreover, we know even less about the reasons why year-12-completers are increasingly likely to complete university. Our model of the impacts of urbanization, fertility decline, and rising parental education and wealth accounts for just 19% of this increase -- fully 81% is due to other factors.
Just what these other factors are is far from clear. Perceived job opportunities are probably a large part of the story -- at least that is our best guess, but one for which we have little direct evidence. The best jobs in an advanced industrial economy like Australia's are in the professions, management, and technology. These jobs are complex and demanding, requiring great skill and training of their incumbents. Parents want their children to be able to take up these good jobs and so send them to school to prepare themselves. The advance of science and technology in the course of the 20th century created the knowledge necessary for an advanced industrial economy, while growth of education created a labor force able to take advantage of these new possibilities.
Fashion and peer pressure may also play some role, among other forces.
The growth of education is probably not due to increasing prosperity, since prosperity will be reflected in (and largely caused by) improvements in parents' education, occupational status, and culture and those are already taken into account explicitly. It is probably not a general later 20th century value shift toward science, high culture, and the arts -- that would presumably be reflected in an increase in the number of books around the home, and that we have already taken into account.
DISCUSSION
Educational levels in Australia, as in most Western nations, have grown steeply in the 20th century. Among other things, this has created tremendous prosperity as an increasingly well-educated labor force is available to fill the complex, demanding, highly skilled jobs that make up an advanced industrial economy.
Some of the reasons for this growth are clear: the growth of urbanisation and the decline of fertility. But these processes have nearly run their course in Australia. It is already one of the most urbanized societies in the world, so there is little more room for change; moreover there is a distinct possibility that some Australians in the future will prefer to move back to smaller towns. Family size is already low, at replacement level; it might go a little lower but might equally well go higher.
Past educational growth in the parents' generation is also a clear cause, and one that will continue to push their children's educational attainments higher in the future as the consequences of past growth continue to work their ways through.
But most of the change remains unexplained (see also Anderson et al 1975; Broom et al. 1980; Jones 1988; Marks et al 1995). So the important point for policy is that making drastic changes to educational funding when we know so little about what motivates young people's educational choices is playing dice with Australia's future. The important point for sociological theory is that these changes will provide an opportunity to study how much the education's momentum slows with reduced financial incentives. Many motivations may play a role in seeking education.
Rational choice theorists would predict that young people from all social backgrounds will be much less likely to pursue university education than in the past, because of the reduced financial incentives. Theorists emphasizing subcultures and social exclusion would predict a strong tendency for the children of highly educated people to continue to seek university education, but a sharp drop in university attendance among young people from working class families (because the financial rewards rather than the cultural acquirements were stronger incentives for them). Evolutionary theorists would argue that the high prestige of education and modern values emphasizing cognitive achievement will continue to draw young people on to university, despite the reduced economic rewards.
References
Anderson, D.S., R Boven, P.J. Fensham, and J.P. Powell. 1980. Students in Australian Higher Education: A Study of Their Social Composition. ERDC Report 23. Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service.
Broom, L., F.L. Jones, P. McDonnell, and T. Williams. 1980. The Inheritance of Inequality. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.
Crook, Christopher J. 1996 "Cultural Practices and Social Stratification in Australia." Unpublished PhD Dissertation, Australian National University.
Evans, M.D.R. & Jonathan Kelley 1995 Education in Australia: International Social Science Survey, Pooled File, 1985-1995. Codebook and Machine Readable Data File. Canberra: International Social Science Survey, Institute of Advanced Studies, Australian National University.
Evans, M.D.R. & Jonathan Kelley, M. Borgers, J. Dronkers, and L. Rollenberg 1995. "Parental divorce and children's education: Australian evidence" WwA: Worldwide Attitudes 1995-07-17: 1-8.
Featherman, David and Robert M. Hauser. 1978. Opportunity and Change. New York: Academic Press.
Jones, F.L. 1988. "Higher education: Who Benefits?" in J. Kelley and C. Bean (eds) Australian Attitudes. Sydney: Allen & Unwin.
Kelley, Jonathan 1995 "Catholic Schools and Educational Success in Australia" WwA: Worldwide Attitudes 1995-07-31: 1-8.
Kelley, Jonathan & M.D.R. Evans 1995 "Private schooling and educational success:Australian evidence" WwA: Worldwide Attitudes 1995-10-30: 1-8.
Marks, Gary 1990 "Ascription and achievement: Trends in Australian education" Australian and New Zealand Journal of Sociology
Tables
Table 1. Educational change in Australia: Mean years
of education; percent completing secondary school
(year 12); percent completing university; and percent
going on to complete university among those who finished
secondary school. By date of birth. Australians, aged
18+ when surveyed (25+ for columns 3 and 4).[1]
-------------------------------------------------------
Finish university
Finish -----------------
Year Years year 12 All If year 12
born mean % % % Cases
-------------------------------------------------------
Up to 1929 9.3 22 06 27 5,491
1930-39 10.0 27 08 31 3,936
1940-49 10.9 37 14 39 5,860
1950-59 11.7 47 20 43 7,268
1960-75 11.9 55 21 39 6,215
------------------------------------------
Total 10.9 39 14 38 28,770
Change[2] 2.6 33 15 12 --
-------------------------------------------------------
[1] N= 25,794 for column 3 and 9,593 for column 4.
[2] Last cohort (1960-75) minus first.
Table 2. Sources of educational change in Australia
for cohorts born 1910 to 1975 (so coming of age circa
1925 to 1995). Direct and indirect effects estimated
by regression for Australians, aged 18+ when surveyed
(25+ for column 3).[1]
-------------------------------------------------------
Finish university
Finish -----------------
Year born Years year 12 All If year 12
-------------------------------------------------------
Total change[1] +2.6 years +33 +15 +12
Due to increasing
urbanization 6% 5% 7% 5%
Due to declining
fertility 5% 4% 3% 1%
Due to parents having
more education,
more books and
better jobs 26% 25% 27% 14%
Due to other
causes 64% 67% 63% 81%
--------------------------------------
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Cases 28,770 28,770 25,794 9,593
-------------------------------------------------------
[1] Increase from earliest cohort (born up to 1929)
to latest (1960-75). From table 1, last row. Based
on OLS regression for column 1 and logistic
regression for other columns.
Education in Australia: International Social Science Survey, Pooled File, 1985-1995
The International Social Science Survey / Australia is a nation-wide survey conducted by researchers at the Australian National University and the University of Melbourne. Begun in 1984, it is Australia's leading academic survey and is devoted entirely to academic research in the social sciences, is non-profit, and is not connected with any business or political party. The ISSS is based on large, representative national samples of all states and territories, drawn from the electoral roll. The detailed and comprehensive survey takes about two hours to complete. It is conducted by mail. The first mailing includes a cover letter from the Australian National University and a postage-paid reply envelope, followed by a further letter about two weeks later. Anyone who did not respond within a month or so is then pursued by up to three more mailings over a six month period. Comparison with the census shows the samples collected in this way to be representative of the Australian population in age, sex, education, occupation, and other characteristics. Dr. Jonathan Kelley is Director and principal investigator of the ISSS; Dr. Clive Bean (Associate Director), Dr. M.D.R. Evans and Dr. Krzysztof Zagorski are co- principal investigators.
This research reports on data from a pooled sample of six surveys from 1984 to 1995. In
addition to giving data on themselves, respondents in several surveys were asked about
their brothers and sisters and these data are also included in this analysis. In all there
are 29,443 respondents.
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